Research 

Publications

Han Yan (2026), A pathway towards energy transition: Urbanization and clean fuel adoption in Chinese homes, Energy Economics, Vol.154. 

Alexander Munson and Han Yan (2017), Catching the elusive herder: A second look at herding in heterogeneous samples, Int. J. Financial Markets and Derivatives, Vol. 5, No. 2-4, 140–153.

Working Papers

1. Efficiency Gains, Welfare Trade-offs: The Economics of Mandated Heat Pump Adoption [Job Market Paper; Finalist, 46th IAEE International Conference Best Student Paper Award Competition]

The U.S. government's push for net-zero emissions has accelerated the transition toward electrified homes, heat pump adoption, and natural gas restrictions. California, at the forefront of these efforts, faces a particular challenge as natural gas remains a key source for space heating, coupled with high electricity prices. While these regulations align with environmental goals, they raise concerns about increased energy costs for consumers and potential strain on the power grid. This study develops a structural model to analyze the impact of natural gas restrictions and heat pump adoption on consumer choices, welfare, and the broader implications for effective carbon mitigation policies. I assess the impact of natural gas restrictions on household energy usage patterns, examine the policy’s social costs, and evaluate the effectiveness of financial incentives in reducing potential consumer burdens. Results indicate that, although policy incentives promote heat pump adoption, they are insufficient to fully offset welfare losses. In the cooling season, a rebound effect leads to increased energy use, but the expenditures still decline due to efficiency gains. In contrast, no rebound effect is observed in the heating season, where high electricity prices cause welfare losses despite efficiency improvements and available rebates.

2. Costs and Constraints for Household Heat Pump Adoption  (With Kenneth Medlock) [Submitted]

This paper examines how household financial capacity and pre-existing HVAC infrastructure shape U.S. residential heat-pump transitions. Using longitudinal housing-unit data from the metropolitan samples of the American Housing Survey from 2015 to 2023, we study transitions among homes without a heat pump in the preceding observed wave. We link the AHS to energy prices, climate and heat-pump performance measures, an installed-cost proxy, and state-year rebate coverage. We develop a forward-looking household investment framework in which housing-specific retrofit costs vary with existing HVAC compatibility. Our empirical analysis shows that homes with compatible pre-existing ducted HVAC infrastructure are more likely to transition, with a sizable difference relative to the low underlying transition rate. Transitions also vary with household financial capacity, installation costs, operating incentives, heat-pump performance, and policy coverage. The results indicate that pre-existing HVAC infrastructure can affect switching costs and suggest that equipment-focused incentives may leave housing-specific retrofit costs unaddressed.

3. The Grid-Household Feedback Loop: How Renewable Energy Thresholds Dictate Electrification’s Climate Payoff [Draft Available Upon Request]

This study examines how renewable energy–driven reductions in electricity prices influence residential heating choices and natural gas consumption in the United States. Using a discrete–continuous choice model applied to household-level data, I find that a 10% decrease in electricity prices increases heat pump adoption by 13.4%, leading to a reduction of 1.134 trillion BTU in direct natural gas use. I further identify a price–income interaction, with higher-income households responding more strongly to electricity price changes in adoption decisions. The climate benefits of this transition, however, depend critically on the power sector’s generation mix. By linking projected household electricity demand to evolving grid composition, the study emphasize the need to integrate decarbonization pathways when assessing net emissions impacts, particularly in fossil fuel–dependent regions. This framework underscores renewable energy’s dual role in lowering electricity costs to accelerate electrification and shaping its ultimate climate effectiveness.

Work in Progress

1. The Loss of the Iron Rice Bowl-The Late 1990s Layoffs Wave and Intra-household Bargaining in China

2. A Study about Creating a Deep Liquid Natural Gas Market in China (With Kenneth Medlock)

3. From Importer to Exporter: The Macroeconomic Effects of U.S. Energy Trade Shocks (With Kenneth Medlock)